At the World Newspaper Congress in October, Nelson presented the report, based on a survey of more than 150 individual newspapers and media executives in more than 50 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas, and on five in-depth country studies.

In an e-mail interview, we asked Nelson what she thinks are the prospects for next year to further advancing media development, training, and financial assistance in some of those regions where media managers are on the cusp of building something special, especially considering the poor global economic forecasts.

WAN-IFRA: If you look at your two experiences in Vienna and the conference at Columbia (Editor's note: the Transatlantic Workshop in Digital Media, also held in October 2011), how do you feel about the financial viability of some of those markets you researched? More or less optimistic?

Anne Nelson: In terms of the overall markets for traditional news organizations, I’m less optimistic. The double whammy of economic downturn and technological disruption has pared away some critical income for news organizations, but also some traditional functions that subsidized news-gathering. The market began a massive winnowing of U.S. news organizations about five years ago, which has resulted in the lay-offs of thousands of journalists and the closure of scores of newspapers. That said, new strategies for survival have emerged and are beginning to show promise. The Economist and the New York Times are examples of two excellent news organizations that are making progress on this front. Last year the Economist’s circulation grew 4 percent, profits grew 10 percent, and advertising rose 15 percent. The New York Times has gone from being a laggard in the digital arena to performing as an impressive innovator. Its last annual report stated that 16 percent of its revenue was derived from digital sources, including online subscriptions, advertising, and mobile and tablet applications.  In the United States, the future will belong to the companies that can navigate the new technology.

However, in terms of international markets, the question is more complicated. In my teaching, I often cite Everett Rogers’ model of adoption. It’s important to note, however, that no innovation occurs in isolation (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Diffusionofideas.PNG.)

If you look at the curve in terms of a technology (for example, for mobile or tablets), you must also take other factors into consideration, such as the introduction of literacy or shifts in disposable income. Culture is a huge factor, but difficult to measure. German publishers (many of whom are enjoying healthy profits) report that in their market, tablet PDF is the “killer app,” because of their audiences appreciate its aesthetic qualities. This is an alien notion in the U.S., but we have to get beyond the presumptions that, first, there are universal norms, and second, that the U.S. market determines them. My best guess at this point is that in mature Western markets, good journalism will get better, drawing on diversified income flows, while pretty-good journalism, especially on a local level, will become scarcer. In many developing countries, especially the BRIC countries, I predict short- to medium-term growth in newspaper markets, especially for mass-market tabloids. This could give their businesses precious time to shape their digital strategies and capture portions of the market (such as online classified) that were lost in the West.

WAN-IFRA: What do you think will be some of the keys in the next year, predicted to be a difficult one economically around the world, to further advance media development, training, and financial assistance in some of those regions where media managers are on the cusp of building something special?

Anne Nelson: The critical issue in media development over the next year will be to alter the entire approach. In the past, it was assumed that there was a set of core skills, constituting “journalism in a box” that could be carried from place to place with a predictable yield of “quality journalism and democracy.” That’s no longer the case. More than ever, media development must be site-specific and crafted in conjunction with local partners, with greater consideration for local norms. In every aspect of media education – whether academic or professional – the most important qualities to impart are those of observation, critical thinking, and adaptability.

Another shift is that journalism education and management training are converging. The new job description of the global news media includes “community activist, as news organizations learn they must relate directly to their communities if they are to sustain a relationship with their audience. One of the most difficult challenges is to provide training in technology, but not to let it dominate the discourse. The old journalism skills of careful listening, reporting and analysis are more important than ever, but they must be developed in a broader context.

WAN-IFRA: With many of the executives you spoke to, what are their concerns regarding the print-digital revenue discussion?

Anne Nelson: I find that the biggest struggle for news executives is in the area of resource allocation. How much do you invest in digital technology and training? How far do you go before it turns a profit or brings in significant revenue? Do you expect every reporter to master every platform, or triage the skill sets between print, video and online platforms? The favorite slogan in the online world is “Fail big and fail fast,” but this spirit of untrammeled experimentation runs against the grain for many traditional news organizations, who have been accustomed to large profit margins that have underwritten minimal innovation.  The news business has been founded on the notion of institutionalized roles, as shown in the terms “gatekeeper” and “the fourth estate.” Those roles have been overturned, and news managers are finding themselves competing in a wider, wilder and less protected marketplace.